Wednesday, August 03, 2011

Primary Challenge

There is just no reason to stay with President Obama as the Democratic candidate for the presidency now that it is evident that he is incapable of defeating the Republicans. This is not intended as a rant against Obama or a vehicle for venting frustration over the latest Republican victory, but rather what I believe to be a realistic problem.

Ask yourself this: If you were the coach of a professional baseball team playing the final game of the World Series and your scheduled starting pitcher had a record of not only never defeating the opposing team, but never having an effective performance against them, would you start that pitcher or take your chances with another who has a better record?

What if you and your neighbors have experienced the destructive results of pollution coming from a nearby factory? The surrounding neighborhoods have suffered as well and they have already taken legal action against the factory. The court found in favor of some of the groups and not for others even though their cases were identical. The only difference was that all of the groups that won were represented by one lawyer while all those who lost were represented by a different lawyer. It is just good common sense to avoid the lawyer with a demonstrated record of failure.

These are the choices we face in 2012 and we need to consider our choice carefully. The Republicans certainly will and they can be counted on to construct a ferocious attack strategy aimed at exploiting every weakness in Obama’s campaign, weaknesses the president and his administration have generously provided them with. Pointing out that Obama’s prospects of being reelected are unlikely is not an attack against the man, but a logical observation of the situation.

From the Republican point of view, Obama has done more to ensure the opposition Party’s return to the Oval office than any campaign strategy they could have employed. They will relentlessly attack Obama for his weakness in negotiating on the Debt Ceiling crisis and point to the fact that they were able to get everything they wanted while the Democrats got literally nothing! They will label him as a liar for not delivering on his campaign promises such as closing Guantanamo and bringing its prisoners to the US for trial. Although the Republicans won those battles as well, they will all the same brutalize Obama for having given in to them.

The Republicans can and will exploit Obama’s failures during his first term and they will most likely have success among the moderate Democrats and Independents. Many in the Democratic base that put Obama in office are regretting having campaigned for him and could demonstrate their dissatisfaction by staying away from the polls in November or not casting a vote for president. The only way the Republicans can lose in 2012 is if they shoot themselves in the foot by allowing a rift between themselves and their Tea Party nitwits.